Tri-Nations Rubgy Betting Preview

Following, and even prior to, the last World Cup in 2003, there was an assumed shift in the powerbase of world rugby union, from south to north. England had shown how to dominate the sport, and with a professional foundation consisting of more players than the three Tri Nations put together, it was easy to assume that the men in white would hold the controlling cards for many years to come. France were also playing extremely well and the outlook was bleak for South Africa, New Zealand and Australia, the three major forces from south of the equator.With professionalism ten years down the line, perhaps the map had been drawn for a likely northern procession for the foreseeable future.As we stand now, 20 months on and approximately half way to the next World Cup, the sport has a very different guise however. The last instalment of the Six Nations was a visibly poor affair, and the summer tours have done little to offer hope to those from the north. The best of Britain have been soundly thrashed by New Zealand in a three test series, whilst France have come unstuck at the hands of South Africa and Australia.The question we are attempting to answer however is which of South Africa, Australia and New Zealand is the strongest as we enter into a highly anticipated Tri-Nations which starts on Saturday.New Zealand New Zealand have been made favourites to win, at 4/7, but we are struggling to remember an occasion when they haven't been in this position going into a major event.They looked formidable versus the British Lions, but perhaps there is a case for arguing against the quality of the opposition. The Lions is a fantastic entity, but in an age where squads are professional and international sides build up over several seasons with more than 60 days a year in each others company, it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to function competitively.Significantly though, they did manage to compete up front with the notoriously tough Brits, and this could be critical. There are no real weaknesses behind the scrum and their sheer ferocity when the ball was on the ground persistently dented any Lions ambition time and time again.There are very real world-beaters in this current All Black set-up that Graham Henry is masterminding. Richie McCaw is peerless at number seven, Chris Jack and Ali Williams are superb in the second row, whilst whichever wings are selected are sure to be devastating finishers. Tana Umaga also played some inspired rugby in that series, but the crucial man in our opinion is Daniel Carter.The fly half appears to have all required abilities for a first rate number ten, and a few other attributes to boot. Defensively sound, brilliant at opening space through excellent pass timing, a great kicker both from hand and kicking tee but also genuinely fast. Not only can he create space, but he can also fill it with his fleet of foot, and when it all comes together, as it did in the second Lions test, it truly is a sight to behold.An injury kept him out of the second and third Lions games, and although now restored to fitness, he can expect a good and well-targeted working over from the likes of Schalk Burger and George Smith as the opposing open side flankers.A succession of fine wins, not just against the Lions but also against France away last November, leaves them as the obvious favourites and with to home games to finish with, there will be plenty of scope for a late charge. However, we are going against them at 4/7, simply because the Tri-Nations is too competitive to get involved at such a short offering.Last year they began as favourites and finished bottom. These odds are far too short for a team with plenty of hype and hyperbole, but still unproven and facing a rigorous examination against the other two best nations in the world.South AfricaSouth African rugby seems to go through more ups and downs than a wallaby on a pogo stick but last year they got it just right in the Tri Nations, as selected successfully by us at an outrageous opening price of 9/1.They played superbly under the tutorship of Jake White, the man who remains in control despite another trying year. The Super 12 again left their teams exposed, with the four participating sides finishing in the last four places. If last year has taught us anything however it should be that form in that tournament does not in any way relate to international displays from the Springboks.Entering into the test season, sceptics had daggers drawn and a home draw with France was disappointing. However, a win the following week against the same opponents was encouraging. A trip to play Australia brought a heavy defeat, and the blades were now firmly in place, but true to their inconsistency, they bounced back last week with a performance that broke the Wallabies in all areas for a resounding win to mark Nelson Mandela's 87th birthday.White now has a squad with great depth, and the fact that nine changes were made for the this last game shows this. Even the mercurial player of the year for 2004, Schalk Burger was dropped, but not missed, and confidence is once again restored.The schedule looks favourable. We would expect an opening victory this weekend, once again against Australia (who have not won in South Africa for five years), and the rush defence worked well against the All Blacks 12 months ago and could take the sting out of their back line in week two at Newlands.This would leave them on top of the table, with the other two sides still without a win, and the pressure clearly building. An away win is what will be needed, and although inexperienced in areas, with confidence high from these two fancied wins, we feel they could upset the Aussies in Perth, the closest city to home where a sizeable army of Rainbow Nation fans now call home.John Smit is developing into a fine leader, and Andre Pretorious looks to be playing well at fly half. The front row has also been strong, Victor Matfield is a classy lock and Percy Montgomery is always a key component at full back.There is definite talent in this Bok side, and we feel that backing them at a price of 9/2 is the way to go. Unpredictable they may be, but this outside price looks too long in our opinion with a schedule that is on their side.AustraliaAustralia traditionally look for consistency as their key to progression, and we can expect familiar names to fill their shirts from one to fifteen once again. However, positive results have not been forthcoming over the past 12 months and as such, this rigid selectorial procedure may well work against them. On the autumn tour they lost in France where New Zealand flourished (and even Argentina won) and wins in Scotland and England are not stand alone impressive these days. The already mentioned result against South Africa in Sydney was better, and a victory against the Boks should never be taken lightly, but this will only serve as fodder to Eddie Jones who will rely on the same group of men to do the job. This is despite the fact that the opponents came back to trounce them last week. They are an impressive team when in control, but with things going against them, and creative players are taken out of focus, there is little in the way of a plan B. Matt Rogers, an essential creative cog, is out, but most alarming is the lack of authority up front, especially in the scrums. We do not feel they will win their away fixtures, and as such cannot see the title going their way. At home they will definitely compete, but of the three nations we expect them to struggle most. 10/3 is the best price available regarding their overall prospects. VerdictEach of the matches will be entertaining as always, but we feel South Africa offer excellent value at the 9/2 available. New Zealand have too often failed to deliver in recent times and it could be out of their hands by the time they have their home games in weeks five and six. A bet on the Boks is the advisable way to go.