Trippi's Storm blows away Mile opponents

Anyone who has ever done maths, or athletics for that matter, will know that running on the inside of a bend is always preferable to running on the outside. You run further on the outside. What's more, racehorses derive some benefit from having a rail as a guide and those drawn low at Monmouth Park have a massive advantage over their rivals. Favourite for the Breeders Cup Mile Excellent Art has been drawn in stall 13 for the 8.20pm contest. One pundit called this 'death valley' before the draw was made earlier in the week, and the stats are there to back up that grim prediction of the Irish raider's chances. To illustrate how hard it is to win from a wide berth at Monmouth around two bends; in the last 157 races run there, only 13 won from starting stalls numbered 8-12. When confined to starting stalls in double figures, only two horses won from a total of 38 runners. Excellent Art has shown this season that he is a smart miler, blessed with a remarkable turn of foot. His St James's Palace Stakes victory when he went from last to first in a matter of strides was visually breathtaking and his subsequent seconds behind Ramonti at Goodwood and Ascot entitles him to be 3/1 for this race. But with a wide starting position, we must give him a wide berth. The only other European raider is Sir Michael Stoute's Jeremy. Frankie Dettori's mount shares similar form to Excellent Art behind Ramonti and that puts him bang in with a chance for the Breeders Cup Mile. However he was bitterly disappointing at Longchamp three weeks ago when finishing down the field in soft ground. He should not get that ground description here, but with only one victory this season it would take a brave punter to be backing him for this. That leaves us with the home challengers and of those Nobiz Like Showbiz looks to have the right form criteria for the Breeders Cup Mile. He has won his last three races in tremendous style - the last of which he took by four lengths. However there are numerous things counting against him. The three-year- old is a big animal which may not be suited to the tight Monmouth track, he is drawn in stall nine. His last race came three weeks ago which would have been fine if he had taken a break in mid-summer but this will be his eighth contest this season and he could be past his best. Art Market also looks to have the right form credentials, but if you delve closely enough you will see that the four-year-old has never won over this distance before. In his last race he was downed by Trippi's Storm in the key prep race the Grade 2 Kelso handicap. This race is often a key pointer to a big performance the home contingent and the lightly-campaigned four year-old may be coming to hand at exactly the right time and is available at 12/1 with Ladbrokes. Excellent Art is clearly the best horse in the race and if he had been drawn anywhere else on the track he would have been far shorter than the 3/1 he currently trades at. But he will have to put in a monster performance to defy the stats and at the price he is, we must surely be able to do better. A lot of the competition also have black marks against them however and it may just pay to put your faith in a lightly-raced outsider in the shape of Trippi's Storm at 12/1 with Ladbrokes to win this years Breeders Cup Mile. Verdict: 1pt Trippi's Storm @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)