Twenty20: Sussex to spin to win

The Twenty20 finals day takes place at Edgbaston on Saturday and is fast-becoming the most important day in the domestic calendar. The thrills and spills of the hit and giggle format have captured the imagination of the public like no other change in the county structure in history. Yet for punters it is vital that before deciding where to put our cash, we remember why Twenty20 is so thrilling for the non-betting fan: it is unpredictable. That must be factored in. And to that end favourites Lancashire shouldn't be touched with a barge pole to lift their first Twenty20 title. The Red Rose county take on Gloucestershire in the first semi-final with the winners facing either Sussex or Kent in the final. Lancashire are no better than 7/4 with Totesport. Really they should be nearer 9/4, which is the price of Sussex, who are the value call. The reason Lancashire are such awful value other than that games can turn in an instant is that their record in big matches is something, for a club which boasts so many good players, to be thoroughly ashamed of. They have not won a trophy since 1998 and since then have choked spectacularly in eight of their last nine semi-finals. And in every single one of them they would have been favourites. Indeed last summer they lost to Sussex in the C&G Trophy final. Chasing 173 it should have been almost impossible to lose but Lancashire managed it in the only way that sides with no bottle do: collapse with the bat. Sussex are a healthier proposition because they boast the tournament's leading runscorer in Luke Wright and can call on Mushtaq Ahmed and Saqlain Mushtaq to put teams in a spin. Spinners are absolutely vital in the format because batsmen like pace on the ball to find the boundaries. Lancashire have Muttiah Muralitharan but the skill of Sussex's pair gives them an edge. But that is not as important as the psychological one they hold. Verdict: 3pt Sussex 9/4 (Stan James)