US Masters betting tips and preview

Maybe no tournament stirs the imagination of golf fans around the world as the US Masters, and so for all fellow golf maniacs out there, the upcoming weekend is sure to be highly anticipated. Get those bank holiday weekend chores out of the way during the day time, as come 9pm you will no doubt be glued to live coverage from the sumptuous Augusta National. Sorry, but we're not watching Casualty this week, and even Match of the Day won't get a look in at my household. Two men have dominated the build up, unsurprisingly considering their recent records at the Masters. Other than when Mike Weir won in 2003, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have accounted for this title in each of the last seven years. Mickelson is the defending champion and is priced at a best of 8/1 by the bookies. Whilst his love for Augusta is not in doubt, we feel this price is too short on this occasion. The left hander has not been playing at all consistently this season and there is no real scope for an each way bet at this quote. A win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was followed with a runners up cheque at the Nissan Open, but otherwise the 36 year old has not had a single stroke play result within the top 20. Compared to last year when all six stroke play events prior to the Masters saw Mick inside the top 14, including a victory just a week before at the Bellsouth Classic, this recent run is not so inspiring. The crowd favourite clearly has the game to do well on this set-up but his overall form of late makes us believe he is unlikely to claim what would be his third green jacket in four years. Moving onto Woods, the world number one has everything is his favour. Our job though is to deduce whether all of the positive aspects in Woods case really merit support at an incredibly short 3/2 in the outright markets. It is ten years since he, as a 21 year old, made perhaps the most significant statement in modern day golf, when winning his first major. It was not just the victory from a very talented young man with a bright future, but the manner of it. A 12 shot success over a top class field in a week when Woods outdid or equalled 26 all time US Masters records. Many believed they had witnessed the birth of the finest golfer in history. Ten years on and still more are coming to that conclusion. Three more green jackets have been added to his Floridian wardrobe, meaning this hallowed corner of Georgia has granted him a third of his 12 major titles. Since winning the Open Championship in July last year, Woods has been pretty much untouchable. In nine out of ten stroke play tournaments in the intervening period it has been Woods holding the trophy at the end of the week. This is a phenomenal statistic. There is no weakness to his game, and he has consistently proven his ability to rise to the top when under pressure. Even a bad week by his standards would be enough to put him in the mix, and even at this price we just cannot avoid having him in the betting verdict. So, with Woods being our headline pick at not far off evens, we need to have a good look through the lists in search of some each way value. One person who stands out is Geoff Ogilvy. The Australian is priced at a best of 40/1, and we believe this is worth taking for a man who seems to have a game perfectly suited to not just the Masters, but all majors.He is a dogged campaigner, and a player who never loses focus or gives up. In majors, where the set ups are a good deal tougher than in a regular tour event, slip ups are going to occur and it takes a resolute strength of mind to take this is your stride. It is easy to become defeatist and feel that things are "unfair", especially when the Pros spend much of their time playing target golf where birdies are the order of the day. This is a man who is willing to fight it out. Looking at Ogilvy's statistics does not do much to spur interest. He is quite a long hitter, but has a poor driving accuracy percentage. His putting stats are unremarkable as are those for hitting greens in regulation. It was the same story during 2006, but the one figure that is important is his position on the Money List. Last year he finished 5th, and this year currently occupies 8th. Statistics can be misleading, and there is no number recorded for mental toughness. If there was, Ogilvy would be very close to the top of the list. This was perfectly illustrated at the US Open last year when Rudyard Kipling's immortal words "if you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs, you'll be a man my son" took on a very human form in the shape of the Australian. The supposedly solid and experienced Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie lost their heads on the 72nd hole, and Ogilvy kept his to join the elite list of major champions. Winning the WGC-Accenture World Matchplay last year, and making the final again just last month is further evidence of this intangible strength of character. As well as winning at Winged Foot, the 28 year old also came 16th here in his first ever appearance at Augusta, 16th at the Open Championship and 9th at the PGA Championship. In 2005 his three major showings were 5th (Open), 6th (US Open) and 28th (US Open). These are all decent results and bear out what we are saying. Recently he came 3rd at the WGC-CA at Doral and 14th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as well as his 2nd place at the Accenture matchplay. There are several reasons to be confident about Ogilvy this week, and you can be sure that he will be trying all the way to end. There are reports that he will be wearing specially made gold shoes this week, and we feel he has every chance of taking them onto the rostrum, if not the winners podium. When you mention Augusta, some players always demand consideration simply because of an exemplary record there. One such man is Jose Maria Olazabal. The Spaniard has finished 15th or better in 13 of his last 15 Masters, winning twice and coming 3rd twelve months ago. Three missed cuts in eight outings and just one finish in the top 20 (13th in the Nissan Open) does not equate to the sort of form likely to feature however, and as such we shall steer clear of the 80/1 being offered. He is one of 23 Europeans who is competing, and once again we have to discuss the length of time since one landed one of the big four. The number (since a Euro victory) is up to 29 now, and the last occurrence was back in 1999. Sergio Garcia is the most fancied to break this cycle, and has been for some time but El Nino has failed to win so far this season and has a horrible tendency not to make the most of strong positions in these tournaments. Also rated highly is Swede Henrik Stenson. The Swede has been a key player on the European Tour for several seasons but perhaps first came to the notice of the American public at the Ryder Cup last year. He was part of the team that demolished the American at the K-Club, winning 3.5 points along the way. This recognition took a massive leap earlier this season too when the 31 year old landed the WGC-Accenture World Matchplay in February. This will be his second visit to Augusta and the cut was missed last year. Although he has six European Tour titles to his name we are not sure that he is ready to make the step up at this level. The Accenture was a huge victory but matchplay success is not always transferable to harsh courses in a stroke play format. Overall we do not see 40/1 as being especially generous. Unfortunately, we cannot get excited about the prospects of any of the European contenders this week. Some are positive about Paul Casey because of a 6th place debut in 2004, but 50/1 is not the sort of price we would be hoping for, especially considering he missed the cut in his only other appearance a year later. At least Luke Donald has had some success on the US PGA Tour, and a 3rd place here two years ago, but the Englishman's game does not appearing to firing presently. The same is true of David Howell and Padraig Harrington, each of whom is priced well inside three figures. We expect this will be another occasion where the European contingent falls short.