US PGA Championship Preview Tips

With barely three weeks passed since the hard baked Hoylake heroics of Tiger Woods at the Open Championship, it is already time for golf punters to get their Major Championship focus on for the fourth and final time in 2006. The winner of this one, though, the US PGA Championship, will have a full six months of bragging rights prior to the Masters kick starting the 2007 campaign in April. The man who had that privilege last year was Phil Mickelson, and as always the American will fancy his chances this time around. His preparation has been meticulous, as is his way these days, although his failure to finish better than 22nd at Hoylake is evidence that his extra reconnaissance is not a guarantee of anything remarkable come Championship time. A missed cut at The International last week is further reason to miss out Mick this time around from a best offering of 12/1. A big difference between that venue in Liverpool, and this one in Chicago (as well as the fact that the courses really are poles apart in terms of style) is that while none of the players at The Open had ever played a tournament at Hoylake, most will be familiar with Medinah. It hosted this event in 1999, and also the US Open in 1990 when 45-year-old Hale Irwin holed a monstrous putt to win in a playoff. This enables us to have a look at some course form which ought to be an advantage, although the majority of the field were not taking part in 1990. Put bluntly, the statistics say that Tiger Woods will win. His current form is exceptional, with four rounds of 66 at the Buick Open following up his Open success, and the world No 1 appears to be swinging as well as he ever has. Anti Tiger fans will have been hoping for some negative course form to detract from his credentials. They will not have to dig too deep into the Major memory bank to realise this path was a wasted one, however. The 1999 edition of the US PGA was the most memorable of recent times with, yes, Tiger Woods prospering. 2/1 is available, and whilst we can't argue against his prospects, this is not a price we can take to. There are 155 other top class professionals in the field all attempting to win, and Woods will also not have the luxury of being able to leave his driver in his bag as he did at Hoylake. Medinah is the longest Championship course in history, at 7561 yards. That week in 1999 was also the one that Sergio Garcia announced himself to the world, pushing Woods all the way with some incredible shot making and captivating enthusiasm. Few would believe that seven years on, the Spaniard would still be searching for his first victory at the big four. He has proved himself to be a player of huge quality in the intervening years, but as the same two protagonists played there way around Hoylake in the last pair on the final day last month, the gulf in class was starkly clear. El Nino crumbled meekly in the stare of the Tiger, and perhaps the most disappointing aspect was that he seemed to be content with his performance. It appeared that he had no belief that he could actually win. And that yellow outfit was surely a regrettable choice too. The 26-year-old is in an encouraging vein of form right now, though, and whilst we may not fancy his chances of taking the glory if it comes down to another shoot-out with Woods, 33/1 does offer some nice each-way flexibility. Including the 5th place at The Open, Garcia has played three times in Europe over the past six weeks, each time finishing inside the top ten. The other events were the Scottish Open and the Deutsche Bank Players Championship of Europe, and these were entered in an attempt to earn some valuable Ryder Cup points. At present he is competing at The International and sits in 7th position after three rounds. In terms of ball striking, Garcia is arguably as good as anyone in the world, and his weakness has frequently been on the greens. This is cause for hesitation when entering a Major Championship, but we still feel that this price is too long for a player of such class, with a proven ability to finish highly. Returning to the scene of all those tree rounding, fairway sprinting histrionics may just inspire an elevation to the level of Major Champion too, and few would begrudge him that as he has come in the top ten eleven times, and been especially close on three occasions. Each time it is Woods who has ruined his day, at Medinah, Hoylake and Bethpage Black for the US Open in 2002. Ernie Els has had a torrid year with injuries and a lack of form but a top three result at The Open showed that the South African is still very much one of the main contenders for Major titles. Since then the world No 7 has taken two weeks off, though, and although his website reports that he has been playing and practising hard in this time, we would like to have seen more sustained high level golf before plumping for the 14/1 available. The South African is competing at The International this week and after three rounds is in 25th, and the cut was missed in 1999 with rounds of 72 and 76. Other than Woods, in terms of current form, Jim Furyk possesses the best of anyone. In fact, his golf has been superb all year, something illustrated by the fact he is second on the US Money list. Nine top tens, and five top fives have been claimed, including the title at the Wachovia Championship in May. Most compelling, though, is his most recent form. The results column for his last four outings reads 2nd (US Open), 4th (Western Open), 4th (Open Championship) and 2nd (Buick Open). This is a stunning run, and at 20/1 we feel the American is worth backing for another satisfying conclusion. In addition to all of this, the four time Ryder Cupper and probable partner for Tiger Woods at the K Club next month, came 8th in this event in 1999, making a mockery of the theory that length is a prerequisite to enjoy Medinah in the process. Furyk is a man who relies on accuracy and a brilliant short game, and these qualities are always vital in a Major. With the 2003 US Open title already safely stowed away, the ungainly swinger knows he has what it takes to beat the best, and will be confident of making this PGA title number 12. We happen to share this confidence. Vijay Singh is also at 20/1 and a former winner of this title, but the Fijian has been strangely out of sorts this season and has had big problems with the putter. At 25/1, Retief Goosen completes the top six in the betting, but the Goose has not won for over a year and does not feature in our plans. Chris Di Marco was impressive at The Open where he became the only man to launch any challenge to Woods and deserved his runner-up cheque for that reason. However, two missed cuts since then means he fails to tempt us this time. With this in mind, our third pick is Alabama native Stewart Cink who can be backed at 80/1. Cink has been a consistent performer for the past several seasons and has always been regarded as one of the finest putters on tour. A massive feather in his cap though is that he was third at this venue in 1999 and so has already shown that he can play well here. 2006 has not been his best year, and from 20th on the US Ryder Cup points list there is plenty of work to do if he is to claim an automatic qualifying spot for what would be his third Ryder Cup. However, at the time of writing the 2004 WGC- NEC Invitational winner is lying 3rd at The International and a very good week at Medinah ought to be enough to propel him into Tom Lehman's side. This must give added motivation to him. With five top tens this year, and four previous PGA tour titles, as well as the facts outlined in the paragraph above, this price should be gobbled up. Since that 3rd place in 1999, Cink has missed the cut once, but also finished inside the top 17 on three occasions, making this his favourite of any of the Majors. One really interesting aspect of this years Ryder Cup, could be the number of probable debutants in the American team. All of the men currently in positions seven to 13 (Vaughn Taylor, JJ Henry, Zach Johnson, Brett Wetterich, John Rollins, Jerry Kelly, Lucas Glover) have yet to play in a Ryder Cup, and perhaps even more surprisingly, all of them are priced at 125/1 or longer for the PGA Championship despite the obvious carrot dangling for them should a healthy pay cheque be earned. However, having looked at the facts and figures for each of them, we do not see a strong case. Perhaps the most likely to emerge is Zach Johnson who leads after three rounds of The International, but there appears to be a huge gap in quality between those at the top of the American rankings, and those from seven and below. This will be worth bearing in mind at the K Club at the end of September. Other than playing well at The International, there is little in favour of Johnson with special attention drawn by five missed cuts at the last seven Majors. Despite a field long search for another American with ticks in all the right boxes (nine of the last ten winners of this title have been American), we have not been able to find one. Instead, our final betting berth is afforded to Geoff Ogilvy of Australia. Ogilvy has had a fantastic campaign this time around, with the obvious highlight being victory at the US Open. He came from a shot behind to hold his nerve and looked extremely comfortable in the heat of battle. More comfortable in fact than the likes of Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson who both double bogeyed the final hole to slip behind. He also won the Accenture World Matchplay, was second at the Honda Classic and sits in fourth place on the US Money List. The key to his success has been a fine short game and an ability to grind hard. Both of these are needed to prosper at events such as this one, and this is why we are liking the 50/1 being touted. Last year, the South Australian was 6th at the PGA Championship, having come 5th at the Open Championship a month earlier. It would appear he has a game perfectly suited to these elite field gatherings and this is a great clutch of results who has only ever played in eleven Majors. Since his glory at Winged Foot, the 28-year-old has come 16th at The Open, and 60th at the Buick Open. The latter of these may not be too encouraging, but he tends to save his best for when the spotlight is shining down. There is every chance for this man to become a two time Major winner in the same year and lay claim to the Wanamaker trophy. That may even be enough to earn the Player of the Year award, as was the case with Mark O'Meara in 1998, although Woods and Mickelson may have something to say about that. 1pt Jim Furyk to win at 16/1 (Blue Square)1pt Sergio Garcia each way at 33/1 (BlueSquare)1pt Geoff Ogilvy each way at 50/1 (Blue Square)0.50pts Stewart Cink each way at 80/1 (betuk)