Vodafone Derby Revised Betting Analysis

Having already advised Hala Bek in the ante-post market for Saturday's Vodafone Derby at Epsom (click here for this preview), I am loathe to suggest now that one should look elsewhere for the potential winner, as if Hala Bek turns up fit, I still think he's the one to be on. However, since he missed the Dante Stakes at York following a dirty scope, his participation has been in doubt. I thought that connections would have reached a decision by now, but it's disconcerting that they haven't, raising concerns that the exciting colt is not 100 per cent yet. As such, it seems wise to take another look at the race, based on the assumption that Michael Jarvis' charge won't go to post on Saturday. In actual fact, even if he does line-up it won't hurt to add another to your Derby portfolio at tasty odds. Leading up to a big race - and they don't come much bigger than the Epsom Derby - the rumour mill invariably works overtime, and generally this conjecture ultimately shapes the market, rather than the sheer weight of punters' money. This year, the great debate is who will Kieren Fallon ride? Originally he looked set to partner Septimus, runaway winner of the Dante Stakes, but the Irishman is now said to be leaning towards Horatio Nelson, who is said to have put in a sparkling piece of work on the slopes at Ballydoyle on Tuesday. To be honest, I honestly don't think it matters who he rides - and it looks as though it will be one of that pair, with Dylan Thomas, Mountain and Papal Bull being three others he could potentially partner - because neither strike me as Derby winners in the making. Firstly, Septimus handled the soft ground better than anything else in the Dante and, without wishing to completely crab what was ultimately an i mpressive effort, he didn't really beat much. While Horatio Nelson was a high-class juvenile last season, but I just wonder whether he will have trained on. The son of Danehill is a small colt and lacks the scope of some of the current Classic generation crop. It may be that he peaked physically last season, but while others have grown into their frames and strengthened up, he's pretty much as he was towards the end of last term. At 16/1 with Blue Square, Championship Point look way too big. I know, I know - winners of the Predominate Stakes at Goodwood don't have a good record in the Derby, but in a race where question marks hang over the lion's share of the field, this son of Lomitas looks pretty solid. Mick Channon's charge would be a much shorter price if he were trained by Aidan O'Brien or Si Michael Stoute. He's done little wrong - winner of his first two races as a two-year-old, he wound up last season by finishing a head second to Linda's Lad, who went onto win a Group 1 next time, in a Listed contest under testing conditions over a mile at Deauville. On his reappearance in the Predominate on May 6, Championship Point really caught the eye. A big rangey individual, he travelled well throughout the race and, after being ridden into a clear lead two furlongs out, he was heavily eased, winning by four lengths, but looking value for three times that winning margin. Sure, he needs to improve on what he has shown thus far, but he is a well-balanced colt, who acts on any ground and will relish the step up to a mile and a half on Saturday. As he proved at Goodwood, he has a good cruising speed and possesses a sound turn of foot, two attributes which are essential ingredients to look for in a potential Derby winner. Visindar's price is ridiculous. Yes, he's a grand looking individual who has plenty of speed and he could well turn out t o be a world-beater. But when backing this son of 2000 Derby hero Sinndar, you have to take plenty on trust. In all honesty, the race's this Andre Fabre-trained colt has been winning in France were of the egg and spoon variety. Ok, so he went about his business in a professional manner and impressed in the process. However, picking up those types of races is a world away to the challenge he will face at the weekend - a strongly-run, fiercely competitive Derby is a different ball game altogether. And, personally, I have little hesitation in opposing Visindar. Fabre also runs Linda's Lad, winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial, and he is one with each-way claims. Sir Percy poses something of a conundrum as he had the look of a Derby horse and certainly merits plenty of respect. But, like Hala Bek, his participation has been in major doubt in recent weeks and I'm just not willing to risk my hard-earned on a horse that hasn't had an A1 prep for a race of t his magnitude. Olympian Odyssey, third in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket behind George Washington and Sir Percy, and Papal Bull, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained winner of the Chester Vase, are both worthy of consideration in a race that is more open than a first glance may suggest. Verdict: 0.50pts e/w Championship Point @ 16/1 (Blue Square)