Wales to suffer at home

Australia have failed to beat Wales on their last two trips to Cardiff, so it is initially surprising to see Sportingbet go a best-priced 9/2 about the home side in what is effectively a winner-takes-all clash against the Wallabies for the honour of topping Pool B. Australia drew 29-29 the last time they graced the Millennium Stadium turf and they went down 24-22 in 2005. It is not an inspiring record really, but then neither is the home side's, and defeats of Scotland, Canada, England and Argentina in the last two years is hardly going to have John Connolly's men go weak at the knees. Sure, the success over the Pumas was impressive, but you never know what these players are thinking in their last warm-up ahead of the biggest tournament of their lives, and I'd prefer to not lend too much credence to that rather astonishing result. The Wallabies have suffered two injuries of note though, one to Mark Gerrard who now misses the tournament, and one to Adam Ashely-Cooper, who misses this match. In a remarkable insight into Australia's mindset though, Ashley-Cooper didn't seem too concerned at Tuesday's press conference that he was going to miss the match. The young winger said: "It's a massive game and out of all the games this is probably the one I wanted to play, against Wales. But there are bigger fish to fry and if the toe isn't 100 per cent I'm not going to risk that. It's not worth it." It seems therefore, that this is just a minor obstacle in Connolly's greater plans to win this World Cup, and that is a very dangerous attitude to have before such an important fixture. The home side are not playing at their best at the moment, and former skipper Stephen Jones seems to have won the battle with James Hook for the No 10 jersey. For now. But the Welsh will be certainly up for this, of all their matches, and the sell-out crowd should make a big difference. Former Wallaby Geoff Shaw once said of playing in Cardiff, "when you feel like you are getting on top, the crowd starts singing and you think to yourself, 'holy s***, how can I play against this?'" All told, Australia should win this, but their head-to-head record against Wales, and the worrying revelation that they may not be taking this match as seriously as they might, leads me to speculate on the winning margin markets. Take the Aussies' superior winning ability and back them to nick it. Verdict: Australia to win by 1-5 points @ 15/2; Australia to win by 6-10 points @ 11/2 (Sportingbet) (Editor's Note: Will home advantage prove decisive for Wales or will Australia take another step towards the World title. Follow all the prices on SportingBet!)