Welsh Grand National Betting Analysis

I'm a fan of Cornish Rebel and opposing him in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow (2.40) on Tuesday is not a decision I have taken lightly. However, one of the most compelling stats is based on weight-carrying: only two horses since 1988 have carried over 11st to victory in this prestigious handicap. During this same period, nine winners of this race have carried less than 10st 5lb. This puts Cornish Rebel's task in perspective ' and that of his stablemate Royal Auclair ' as they will be carrying 11st 10lb and 12st respectively, which is an awful lot of weight to be carrying in a gruelling 3m 5½f contest at a course where conditions are usually testing at this time of the year. Despite these factors, it simply cannot be denied that Paul Nicholls' duo possess the commensurate class to go close, but my advice is to side with World Wide Web, who represents the owner-trained combination that one this with Mini Sensation in 2002, and who makes plenty of appeal at 8-1 with Ladbrokes. Like virtually every horse in Jonjo O'Neill's stable, World Wide Web was a shadow of his true self last season, only having two outings and running poorly on each occasion. However, the son of Be My Native, who will be carrying a feather weight and will relish the likely testing conditions, has shown distinct promise in his two outings over timber this season, particularly last time out in a well-contested 3m½f event at Newbury where he was putting in eyecatching late work to finish 13 lengths fifth to The Market Man, despite the ground being much too quick for him. That effort clearly demonstrates that the nine-year-old retains plenty of ability and that he is coming to hand. Indeed, if a reminder be needed of World Wide Web's class, then thinking back to his nine-length victory in the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown two years ago will certainly be food for thought. Everything will be perfect for the selection on Tuesday and, in my opinion, he's much the most likely winner. At the time of writing, the Philip Hobbs-trained One Knight heads the market. He has plenty of class and is still lightly raced for a nine-year-old chaser, having had just seven outings over fences. As a novice, he landed the prestigious Sun Alliance Novices' Chase at the 2003 Cheltenham Festival, but has been seen only twice since, suggesting that he's had his fair share of training problems. However, he does go well fresh, as he proved last December when making light of a 13-month absence to lead from pillar to post and claim glory in the 3m 2½f Rehearsal Chase at this track. That was a cracking performance, and one which showcased his stamina and ability to handle plenty of cut in the ground. In addition, he is far from prohibitively treated off just a 3lb higher mark. But, for all he has going for him, the fact remains that he will be taking on race-fit rivals over a trip further than he has ever raced before, and he'll have to weather these respective storms under 11st 6lb. In essence, I reckon he'll be vulnerable. Lord Transcend isn't a certain starter, while I personally don't fancy either of Pipe's main entries, Comply Or Die and Control Man, and both Mckelvey and Strong Resolve, respected though they are, have a bit to find and will have to brush up their jumping techniques if they're to make an impact. Betting verdict: 2pts win World Wide Web @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)