World Cup SpreadBetting Markets Analysis

In the final BettingChoice long-term preview before the World Cup starts, I am going to concentrate on the Spread Betting markets. All of the main firms have a vast array of quotes, most of which though can be immediately discarded apart from a couple that have caught my eye. I fully understand my main recommendation will not be accepted by the majority of football fans, and quite understandably when glancing at the fixed odds winner market that has Brazil favourites by quite some distance. However, going against the grain can often produce spectacular results on the spreads. Sporting, IG, Spreadex and Spreadfair all have a 100 Index, although the points system does vary. The firm I will look at is the latter, who award 100 points for the winner, 80 runner-up, 60 third place, 40 fourth place, 30 quarter-final, 20 second phase and zero for failing to make it out the group. Brazil are quoted at around 55-56 which means they are expected to make at least the semi-finals. Any further and buyers would be rewarded, while an early exit would see sellers profit. Quite clearly those who go long at 56 face an anxious few weeks before finding out if their investment reaps dividends. I have already hinted in my group preview that the current World Champions may not do as well as expected citing an ageing defence and a strike force that failed to perform to an acceptable standard in the European leagues last season. In addition I referred to World Cup history suggesting when Brazil are strongly fancied they tend to not do quite as well as when the pressure isn't so intense. While it would be quite some shock should Brazil be knocked out at the group stages, it shouldn't be totally dismissed. Croatia, Australia and Japan are all more than capable footballing nations who won't be fazed by playing the title holders, least of all the 2002 co-hosts who held the tournament favourites to a 2-2 draw in the Confederations Cup twelve months ago. Australia are likely to take the physical route against Brazil which may or may not work, while Croatia drew 1-1 with Brazil in a friendly last year. Should the improbable not happen, a second phase clash with most likely Italy or Czech would be no formality, nor a possible last eight meeting with Spain - already earmarked by this website as the winners of the 2006 World Cup. Even if Brazil do progress to the semi-finals, there is still one final hope before any serious losses can be incurred. On the flipside sellers stand to land a tidy sum should the mighty fall at anytime before the final semi-finals. As a result I believe a small sell at 55 offers plenty of scope for a decent windfall without too much risk attached. One further reason albeit hardly a valid one to back against Brazil is their publicised unhappiness about the official World Cup ball. They aren't the only ones with Jens Lehman saying the ball was made for outfield players and the fans. It it rains the ball is expected to gain extra speed making life very tough for keepers. It is with this in mind that I be paying extra special attention to the total goal yardage available at Sporting Index. Buyers at 2100 would need on average a goal from outside the box per game to see some serious profits. It may be worth keeping an eye on is the weather throughout the tournament as should the heavens open for any extended period of time, and as described above the velocity of the ball increases - the number of long range goals could increase.