Worsley to show forward might

Former PM Tony Blair used to say that England and the USA have a special relationship. That may be true in the world of politics, but on the rugby pitch the only thing special about the link between the two sides is that England rarely play USA, and when they do, they give them a real hiding. And if we are being perfectly honest, it's generally not even England's full international side that hands out the thrashings. This summer England's A side, or Saxons as they are now known, steamrollered the USA 51-3. If it had been an important match at all, I'm sure our media would have crowed about it. "You Yanks took one hell of a beating", etc... A fixture against America, however, is not on England's radar, and that is the first reason why England may find it tough to cover the odds-makers' 55-point handicap. Brian Ashton said in a press conference on Tuesday that his principal aim is to win this match, put in a good performance second, and get the match-day 22 through the 80 minutes without injury in the third instance. That hardly instils confidence in those who want to back the Red Rose to put at least a 55-point gap between the two sides. Secondly, England have not got their best team out. The absence of Jonny Wilkinson due to another injury is a major concern both for his team's chances in the tournament and for punters' hopes of them beating the handicap. His replacement, Olly Barkley, is nowhere near as good a place kicker, and the Bath back only managed a 69 per cent strike-rate at goal in the last Premiership season. Substitute Andy Farrell may be a quick-thinking centre, but he is slower than most front-row forwards and in a game against minnow teams, it is pace that kills. Leicester centre Dan Hipkiss must be wondering what he has done wrong to have not made at least the bench. The accountant for the RFU must be also wondering what Farrell has done right to warrant such huge sums the Union is paying him. Where England do have a massive advantage is in the forwards. Ashton has picked his most dynamic and bulky eight which should provide his prosaic back-line with plenty of ball. The question is whether they can utilise it. The IRB did a study into possession ratios in the Six Nations recently. England kept the most possession in this year's tournament and yet, they scored their lowest haul of tries in the competition in the last seven years. Although England predominately scored through their backs in that tournament, the exploits of Nick Easter against Wales put paid to that. Joe Worsley has a decent strike-rate of scoring tries, and at around 16/1 he looks a decent price to score England's first touchdown for at least 160 minutes of playing action. The last time England played USA in a full international was in 2001. The score was 48-19. England were a far better side then than they are now and by all accounts, the USA have only got better since then. Ashton's side will win this match, but I'd be surprised if they exceeded the winning margin they managed in 2001 and they would have to be a bit special to beat the Eagles by more than 55 points. Verdict: 2pts USA +55 @ 10/11 (PaddyPower); 1pt J Worsley to score the first try @ 16/1 (general) (Editor's Note: England have lost 15 of their last 16 away from Twickenham. They will be too strong for USA but by how much? For the latest rugby betting go to PaddyPower!)