2011 Kentucky Derby Outside Contenders Part One
- By A.J. Ryder on April 20, 2011 18:45 GMT
The secret to betting on this year's Kentucky Derby seems to be that there is no secret – with virtually all of the early favourites failing to perform to expectations in their higher-profile Derby preps. Aside from the irrepressible Dialed In (Mineshaft), who hasn't been without his own setbacks, there are no genuine favourites with the high-profile Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) being dramatically upstaged in the Wood Memorial and then being dogged by some controversy over whether connections were being completely transparent with Uncle Mo's fitness levels.
Even The Factor (War Front) was well-beaten last weekend with Archarcharch (Arch) storming to victory in the Arkansas Derby. It looks as though we'll likely have a board resembling last year's Derby, when Super Saver (Maria's Mon) went off as the 5/1 favourite.
The amount of late-emerging colts has really been the more positive spin to put on the story as opposed to focusing on the failures of last year's crop of promising two-year-olds. We'll be taking a look at some of these outside contenders and trying to get a better idea of how one of the most wide-open derby's in years is expected to shape up.
Twice The Appeal (Successful Appeal) booked his ticket when romping to victory in the Sunland Derby and the big purse on offer for that one was enough to secure him a stall. A blue-collar sort, he ran for a $30,000 tag at Santa Anita last December and scored by 4.5 lengths with Garrett Gomez up. Two or three races later he cashed a big one when Beyering a 95 and taking the field five-wide in the process. I like his tactical speed and the style of race he ran in the Sunland is one that could be replicated successfully in the Kentucky Derby. Getting one over the respected Astrology (A.P. Indy), in what was supposed to be his coronation, also adds a good portion of appeal. There is a ridiculous variance in his price with some European bookmakers – you'll find Twice The Appeal as low as 16/1 with Bet365 and 50/1 with Blue Square.
Midnight Interlude (War Chant) went from a maiden special weight winner to a Grade 1 winner inside a single race when he ran a masterclass in the Santa Anita Derby. I was on-course that day and had been touting Midnight Interlude to whoever would listen to me in the turf club. Bet down from 20/1 to a 13/1 price at the off, he ran wide the entire trip and still came on gamely to collar the front-running Grade 1 winner Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie) after having to check sharply at the sixteenth pole. Winning by half a head to deliver the goods, this guy booked his Derby ticket in only his fourth career race. He had two previously unsuccessful attempts at the competitive $56,000 MSW circuit at the Great Race Place before taking his competition to the wood pile when scoring by 8.5 lengths. I played that as the big reference that he was ready to improve sharply and was well-rewarded on the day.
I expect him to go off at a hefty price on Derby day so I don't think you should be in a rush to bet him even though I will admit I do have him backed Non-runner No-Bet. He boasts a relatively uniform price of 16/1 with most major bookmakers at the moment but will likely go off higher than that in the mutuels on race-day. You can lock in your bet on him now for free using our William Hill promo code.
More on the Kentucky Derby:
