2011 Kentucky Derby Outside Contenders Part Two
- By A.J. Ryder on April 20, 2011 18:49 GMT
The real reason why I think Midnight Interlude is a strong Derby play is that he really got a nightmare trip but handled it with aplomb – three-wide the whole way, five or six-wide at the quarter pole and then checking and having to regroup and STILL hitting the line first. It was a smash and grab raid for the Bob Baffert charge and that's the type of performance I like to see heading into a 20 horse football game.
The really interesting variable in the race already looks to be Aidan O'Brien's Master of Hounds (Kingmambo) who, despite being American-bred, is based in Ireland. A well-beaten sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year, he switched over to the synthetic at Meydan to run an impressive second-place to the mighty filly Khawlah (Cape Cross) who lined up for Godolphin that day.
To ship in for the single race like that and get a really good performance on a new surface shows the type of versatility you get with a well-bred Kingmambo (he is out of a Sadler's Wells mare). He finished ahead of a number of talented contenders from all four corners of the globe and it appears as though connections are now certain to enter him in the Kentucky Derby.
You have to respect that decision as a rather sly one as the 2000 Guineas, and quite possibly the Derby, will be dominated by Frankel (Galileo) and there is nobody standing out that much on the American racing scene. If Uncle Mo hadn't lost in the Wood, you wonder whether Master of Hounds would be shipping stateside at all. He will likely get bet down pretty hard by the Europeans so any Euro with access to the US tote should probably make their bet that way. He will be very competitive on the exchanges as well and will likely see some wild swings.
Late-running Nehro (Mineshaft) looks as though he will be a force to be reckoned with on Derby day and he is already seeing some prominent placement in the betting markets based off his very impressive close in the Arkansas Derby. It was a similar story at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby and he looks one for the Triple Crown trail as opposed to just the Derby as it's clear he can handle the 1m2f and shouldn't struggle at 1m5f either. He put up an impressive 99 Beyer trying to pick off Archarcharch and, with a cleaner trip, likely would have gotten it. With a lack of genuine stand-outs for this one and the fact that his last race will be living large in the memory of many Derby punters, he stands the risk of being over-bet on May 7.
I like him, he deserves respect and is a logical addition to any exotic ticket – you still have to remember that all he's won is a $38,000 Maiden at Oaklawn despite being beaten by a neck in two stakes contests. Ask yourself this – with his late-running style is he going to be able to find the room he needs in a 20 horse field with Dialed In and several others looking for late-running room as well? Not a clear-cut winner by any stretch of the imagination but a logical each-way bash around 20/1 in my opinion. Some European bookies have him as low as 10/1 and that is far too short for a horse that has qualified thanks to a few impressive placings. You can lock in your free bet now by using our William Hill promo code.
The interesting wise-guy selection for the next few months might actually be the low-profile Dance City (City Zip) who had a very large impact on the Arkansas Derby despite only managing a third-place finish. He doesn't yet boast the graded earnings to win his way into the Derby but he has been confirmed to ship to Churchill Downs by the Blood Horse magazine and will likely line up in the Preakness or the Belmont due to his lack of graded earnings. He came on quite well and put in a very game performance after delaying the start of the race for nearly five minutes when he refused to go into the gate. One bookie has odds on him for the Derby, listing him at 14/1, but it would take several withdrawals to get himself a post. Look out for him later in the summer – he could be a big statement for City Zip.
There is still nearly ten other contenders set to line up in the 2011 Kentucky Derby that are considered genuine outside chances and we'll be taking a closer look at them in the coming days. This is going to be a great betting race and we learned a few years ago with Mine That Bird (Birdstone) that virtually anything can happen at any price in the Kentucky Derby. Things could still be setting up for Uncle Mo but you just have to wonder whether he may have bloomed a bit too early and led us all on.
Right now, Midnight Interlude looks like an improver while Master of Hounds will be adding a seriously cosmopolitan feel to this one. Expect a genuine contest – and a hefty payout to the winner – of the 2011 Kentucky Derby.
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