2011 Kentucky Derby Outside Contenders Part Three
- By A.J. Ryder on April 21, 2011 19:36 GMT
We're continuing our analysis of the 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders but we'll be ignoring the Dialed In's and the Uncle Mo's to analyze some of the more obscure contenders that have emerged onto the scene by scoring dramatic upsets or cobbling together a few solid place finishes in recent weeks.
Soldat (War Front) was considered to be one of those major contenders at one point about two months ago after he stormed to the lead in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. He proved his dirt chops by taking that one fresh off his dirt debut in a mid-level allowance contest where he Beyered extremely well and won by 10 lengths.
The gloss came off when he couldn't replicate his form in the Florida Derby and was hided by the likes of Dialed In. There is a good chance that he lines up in the Derby as he's pushing around $300,000 in graded earnings which should be enough for an entry stall. On a slick track he gets a bit more play thanks to his strong mud reference. At one point he was trading at 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby ante post market but now you'll find him as high as 25/1 with the European books. You can lock in your bet for free now using our William Hill promo code.
Speaking of 25/1 contenders, Pants On Fire (Jump Start) is also trading at that price in a number of ante post markets at the moment. He had been based in the north-east and shipped down to Fair Grounds off the back of a pair of credible performances at Aqueduct over the inner track. He was just headed in debut on the Bayou when he lined up in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes.
A forgettable run in the Risen Star didn't put connections off and he rewarded their confidence when capturing the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by a neck with in-form pilot Rosie Napravnik in the irons. Nehro made headlines by finishing a close second and it looks like the pair will face off once again at Churchill.
Pants On Fire flashed a sharp five panels on April 15 at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida and he'll be zipping to Churchill in the coming days. He put in a game performance after shipping from New York to Louisiana so a quick trip to Kentucky from Florida shouldn't phase him a bit. It's guys like him that win wide-open races like this Kentucky Derby and you can guarantee that he'll probably go off at a solid price. He still has room to improve. It's worth noting his relative non-stop campaign since debuting last September. He's had a month off on two occasions but has certainly bucked the trend most of the top Derby contenders employed by racing eight times in less than eight months. Only Comma To The Top, Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) and JP's Gusto (Successful Appeal) have raced more times than he has. Rosie Napravnik winning the Run for the Roses has a nice ring to it as well – an in-form jockey is a nice thing to have in this race.
Archarcharch (Arch) rocketed onto the Derby trail when he bested JP's Gusto in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park back in February but really entered the equation when he toppled The Factor in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby when sent off at a whopping 25/1 price tag. He'd been on the scene at Oaklawn throughout the spring after shipping over from Fair Grounds after wining the 60K non-graded Sugarbowl Stakes without even bothering to break his maiden.
The big question is whether this guy really has the chops to tangle with some of the better contenders on their day. He's got guts, that's not in question, and he represents great value having been purchased for a mere $60,000 at the 2009 Keeneland Spring Sale. He's a likeable horse with likeable connections and he is an obvious half-brother to Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame (Arch) so you can expect him to take a bit of money. He needs to improve to have a shot at the top three, but you reckon he'll have a few backing him with that 14/1 price some bookies have him listed at. There is one bookmaker pricing him as low as 17/2.
Stay tuned as we examine the rest of the field and even a few of the Triple Crown Trail aspirants in the coming days.
More on the Kentucky Derby:
