Expect The Unexpected in 2011 Kentucky Derby

Even a day before the actual announcement of the 2011 Kentucky Derby field and morning line, there is still plenty of drama unfolding as another was withdrawn and a mysterious Irish raider landed in Louisville after acquitting himself well on his Middle Eastern foray. While the criticism of this Kentucky Derby field seems to be quite widespread, there exists the possibility that a really good race could actually emerge from a field that is probably drawing criticism because it's a bit tricky to handicap more than anything else.

There's been a bit of movement in the European betting markets recently though much of it hasn't really involved the two favourites – Dialed In (Mineshaft) and Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) who has seen the gloss come off since his loss in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. In fact, his vanquisher on the day, Toby's Corner (Bellamy Road) was withdrawn with a leg problem that has confounded his connections and prevented his ability to van down from his Maryland training center. Derby Kitten (Kitten's Joy) gets the nod to take his place and the winner of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes will likely go off at a much longer price than the 14/1 we saw Toby's Corner commanding.

Midnight Interlude (War Chant) has seen his price trimmed down from 20/1 into 14s by Ladbrokes who had him previously listed at 16/1 after his smash and grab raid in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Nineteen days before that race he was a maiden and after collaring Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie) he was immediately Derby bound and represents multiple winner Bob Baffert's best shot at the roses. Midnight Interlude has been stringing together an impeccable series of works since shipping over from California and the strong mud reference from his pedigree and his 8.5 length maiden score (which came in utter slop on the Santa Anita main track) could give him an edge with heavy rain in the long-term forecast for Derby day. Last year's winner Super Saver (Maria's Mon) boasted a strong slop pedigree and it paid dividends with Calvin Borel in the irons.

Speaking of Borel, he has drawn a genuine longshot mount in this contest with Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal (Successful Appeal). He commands a 25/1 price tag and that looks a snip if the cajun jock can successfully continue his run of three wins in four races. The Sunland Derby boasts graded status and carries a hefty purse – it also produced a derby winner a few year's back with its fifth-placed finisher Mine That Bird (Birdstone) launching a famous rail-skimming charge to romp home at 50/1 and shock the world.

US racing pundits are still up in the air over how much the Calvin Borel effect will be felt this year.

Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) is looking like a serious challenger here and his price represents value and shows that he's clearly set to take some money. He secured a sponsorship from, who else, 3M innovations whose trading symbol is MMM. His victory in the Risen Star was impressive and his third place finish in the Louisiana Derby looks a bit better when you realize he threw a front shoe coming out of the gate. Look for Mucho Macho Man at 12/1 in European markets.

Nehro (Mineshaft) is emerging as a real wiseguy selection in this one despite not actually winning any of the high profile contests he's been featuring in this year. He has come on late very well in both contests though and a pair of second place finishes gives clues that he'll likely be there-or-thereabouts. I do think he needs an exceptionally clean trip if he's going to come on late instead of opting to stalk the pace. A twenty horse field always works against late-runners who are simply forced to outrun so many contenders. A lightning early few fractions sets it up nicely for him but I just think he'll have too much to do to justify that 8/1 price.

Soldat (War Front) isn't drawing nearly as much praise as he was a few weeks ago following his poor fifth in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He has fired sharp in the past and you really have to wonder whether you throw that race out as his hand was forced and he didn't really look his usual self over the extra distance. He trades around 16/1 with the European books to win the Derby and, should he get up to around 20/1, he might be taking a decent sum as a high-paying outsider.