Can Australia Reclaim the Ashes? No they Can't

This Ashes build up has been the tales of two teams. And for once, it is surprisingly Australia seemingly in disarray.

To put things into perspective, even Monty Panesar, once a synonym for fielding incompetence, has become a star after the stunning catch he took against Australia A last week.

Rewind to the November 23, 2006. Buoyed by England’s victory 15 months earlier, the English faithful held their breath in anticipation, and even dared to murmur that England could hold the Ashes down under. It took just one ball to shatter those illusions.

Steve Harmison – England’s destroyer in 2005 – glided in, bowled and, instead of uprooting the stumps, the ball sailed wide arriving in the hands of second slip.

The tone was set. By close of play that first day, Australia were 346-3 and England were on their way to being whitewashed.

Things could not be more different today.

England last won a series in Australia by a 2-1 margin back in 1986-87. Since then, they've have lost five in a row and each one of these emphatically. In 25 Tests during this period, England have lost 18 and won three, one of which was a dead rubber.

However, one cannot help but think that this could be England’s summer. If not as much to do with England's excellent recent form, then most certainly to do with Australia's problems with form and fitness.

For once, England are ranked higher in the ICC Test rankings, and have a better win-loss ratio in the past two years, winning 12 and losing four, to Australia's current record of 12-6.

If one was to look at the corresponding two year period before the previous Ashes series in Australia, Australia had won 15 matches and lost only two!

But also- one cannot ignore the obvious. The 2007 Australian Ashes party consisted of a then World XI including the likes of Hayden, Langer, Ponting, Hussey, Gilchrist, Warne and McGrath. Fast forward three years and only Ponting remain; with very little substance beyond.

England on the other hand look a settled unit, with Strauss, Cook, Bell and Collingwood performing well in their warm-up encounters and the strike force of Anderson, Broad and Swann wreaking havoc.

All eyes will be on England’s pace attack leading into the series, with both Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson impressing leading into the opener.

Anderson, hasn't had much success against the Australian top order with Ponting openly relishing the opportunity to bat against him in the past.

Even Michael Clarke, who has been dismissed by Anderson more often than any other Australian batsman, has an average a touch under 50 against him.

Stuart Broad on the other hand has done phenomenally well against Ponting and Hussey, yet  for some or other reason, Katich has gone into overdrive against his bowling, scoring at close to 6 runs per over without being dismissed once- some food for thought.

Into the spinners we go, and with that the ever impressive Graeme Swann. He is easily England’s best chance against the left handers having dismissed Katich and North three times each, and Hussey and Johnson twice each.

The bookmakers are still calling this one in favour of the Aussies- home ground advantage, history and all that. However with Clarke now currently under debate as to whether he will play in the First Test, there must be questions with regards to the Australian team’s psyche heading into the opener.

The fact that Australia initially named 17 players in the squad for the First Test shows just how uncertain they are about their combination, and for the first time England look a more settled unit, a more prepared unit, and an all-round superior side- capable of being the first England team in close to three decades to retain the coveted urn.

No matter how much confidence might run in a team’s veins, it can only ever be as good as its players, and Australia’s are not great.

England’s, on the other hand, are much better than they were.

England seem to have finally embraced a winning mentality, and with it the sort of certainty that used to be the property of the Australian sporting psyche only a few months ago.

Prediction: England to retain the Ashes 3-1