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There’s only a very short field of contenders ready to line up for the 2012 iteration of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. Very few marginal contenders look likely to try their luck here with the only horse that’s any way out of form looks to be Bothy, who is still Grade 3 placed in his own right. This one only contains six runners even two days before the final declaration stage so don’t expect some particularly long prices here, though you can expect some very dynamic match betting.
Silviniaco Conti won the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase and staked his claim on a repeat of last season when he conquered the Rising Star Novices and the Mildmay Novices. He scored in his first effort against open company and acquitted himself well with an impressive eleven length score over Wayward Prince. Midnight Chase, Time For Rupert and Planet of Sound were all well-beaten by the upstart fresh off the novice circuit. The bookmakers have him at a tasty 9/4 and it would be a major statement if he was able to defeat Long Run in his second effort against open company and his first Grade 1 race.
The Betfair Chase is one of those tightly contested top level Grade 1 races where at least one horse makes a major declaration and moves forward substantially. If it’s going to be a connections sort of thing - punters will be looking directly at Silviniaco Conti with Ruby Walsh up and Paul Nicholls training.
The real ones to watch here look to be Trustan Times and Son Of Flicka - who are both entered at very solid prices. They both have credible claims to a victory here - Trustan Times really looking like he turned a corner in his recent seasonal debut. He hit a hurdle in his previous winning effort at Wetherby but regathered himself to charge home and stay on. He looks solid and at six he still has a lot of room to move forward. I don’t think we’re going to see a dramatic amount of improvement in the three weeks between races but you do have to respect his grit. The soft going shouldn’t trouble him too much and he has run second at Haydock before.
Sivola De Sivola is one of the other main contenders here and he’s trading at a 13/2 price tag. He’s a likable horse but he’s just not won in a while. He ran very forgettably in his Cheltenham effort - beaten 45 lengths by Brindisi Breeze. He was then sent off as a joint 4/1 favourite in his seasonal debut in a much weaker race and only finished fourth - beaten 8.5 lengths.
One of the best races of Saturday’s entire National Hunt card is the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle, which runs at 2:30 at Haydock Park. On the undercard for the Betfair Chase, you expect that many might use this race as an opportunity to build up their bankrolls a bit. There is a lot to like about this 3m contest and you reckon that the real variable is likely to be the soft ground. Don’t expect any more watering and definitely expect a few swings in the betting market as the volume is likely to pick up considerably a few hours before the race.
The Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase has some high quality runners ready to roll and the likes of Michael Flips, Forpadydeplasterer, Calgary Bay and Al Ferof all try to get things off to a big start in this race. You’ll find Grands Crus trading as the betting choice for the most part with Hunt Ball also looking like a competitive selection for many. The ante post market for this race has been quite hot for a while in regards to this effort and most will be expecting Grands Crus to get the job done as he’s been beat down to nearly 9/4.
The second race of the day is a handicap novices chase going 3m110y. There’s no out and out superstars lining up in this one but this could be a real fascinating race if a few of them get the type of trip they’ll be looking for. One to watch is Sea of Thunder who was a beaten favourite last time out at Cheltenham a few weeks back. Sire Collonges, a Paul Nicholls charge, got the better of him on the day and he’ll be looking for his third score on the bounce here. He had a tough race last time out and was on the lead setting a good pace before landing improperly and nearly dropping the rider.
The Open Meeting at Cheltenham is going to be an especially tantalizing one this year as we’ve got a solid selection of six races set to run this Saturday. Expect some of these to be races that set the tone for much of the season, as there are a number of notable preps unfolding on the day.
The first of which is a JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, a Grade 2 event, going 2m110y. The well-rated Vasco Du Ronceray had Tony McCoy booked for the trip last time and they were able to get the job done relatively easily with a 32 length margin separating them from Cool Hand Luke. Sent off at a slim 1/5 for that effort at Hereford, it was an...
Finian's Rainbow scored a massive double to end the 2012 campaign when he bested champion Sizing Europe and then scored in the Melling Chase a month later over another talented assortment of specialists while achieving a notable 173 OR. Expect him to deploy his usual tracking trip before either kicking on late or quickening up the pace if he senses weakness in the frontrunners. His recent run of races stretches all the way back to November 10 and he's won 7 of 9 races with the two losses being second place finishes.
