2010 Breeders Cup Friday Betting Preview and Tips Part One

The 2010 Breeders’ Cup is just under a week away, and while the main focus is likely to be on Saturday’s fixtures, we’ll be previewing some of the races kicking off on the Friday undercard.

Last year the Friday races paid out some very solid payouts and you can bank on more of the same this time out.

Filly & Mare Sprint

We’ve got a full field and a cadre of reserves lined up for this classy Grade 1 contest. We’re going 7f around the dirt course here and the exchange prices look to be favouring Rightly So (Read The Footnotes), a winner of the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga. She is a specialist at the distance but isn’t as seasoned as you want for a race like this- she has lined up against East Coast sprinters and not much else.

She’s 4/1 with the bookmakers and 6.2 on the Exchanges. John Sadler’s SWITCH (Quiet American) could be put in the same boat as Rightly So (you’ll have to switch coasts, though) but she’s faced, and beaten, higher-quality fillies and mares at three. She boasts a second place finish to Zenyatta (Street Cry) in the Lady’s Secret and she bounced Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision) in the Hollywood Oaks.

Only the surface really works against her here and she looks solid at 8/1 with the bookies and an 11.0 exchange price. Take a bash on Champagne D’Oro (Medaglia D’Oro) if you aren’t sure about Switch or Rightly So- this is a seasoned runner with wins at Saratoga and Belmont, as well as a disqualified score at Del Mar last year.

Filly & Mare Turf

The classy European 4 year-old Midday (Oasis Dream) ships to the USA looking for her second crack at the Breeders’ Cup, having conquered this same race last year. She went off as the solid 15/8 favourite that day and acquitted herself very well. She’s a solid bet to take this one and has been absolutely dominant during the European turf season- capturing high-profile scores at Goodwood, York and Longchamp under Tom Queally.

From a ratings’ perspective she’s well above the competition here with a 140 RPR and the closest competitor being Red Desire (Manhattan Café) at 133, but she looks to be heading for the turf classic. Midday is at evens with the European bookies and she’s at less than that on the exchanges. We’re going to try to beat Midday, mostly from a value perspective, and John Shirreffs’ HARMONIOUS (Dynaformer) looks to be the play.

You’ll find Harmonious around 8.0 on the exchange with a 9.0 price floated with the bookmakers. Keep your eye on Red Desire should the connections opt for a more winnable race (this one is way more open than the turf classic) as she’ll be a real contender here. A Midday/Harmonious exacta could be your winning ticket if you’re not feeling too adventurous.   

Juvenile Fillies

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is always one of the more open races on the card and this is a fairly solid field that could go in a variety of different directions. We’ll be backing Bob Baffert’s up-and-comer A Z WARRIOR (Bernardini), who comes into the race fresh off a score in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park. The 2 year-old bay boasts plenty of tactical speed and boasts synthetic and dirt victories here.

The Belmont reference is very important as the lengthy stretch drive there shows the ability to close well. This isn’t a step up in class for her and she should prosper based on a clean trip and a lack of interference. Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course) will attract some attention with her undefeated record, but we think being campaigned solely at Calder isn’t enough, she has never run in a grades stakes and she’s been winning at 1/10 and 2/5’s under hand rides. The connections have kept her in a comfort zone so be hesitant about this one.

Todd Pletcher’s R Heat Lightning (Trippi) is probably a better spoiler and she’ll be looking to avenge the Frizette loss against A Z Warrior. She’s got a Saratoga score under her belt from the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes and has never finished outside the top two. Watch how they deploy her here as she might try a Zenyatta-style late-run from the back.