2010 Dubai World Cup at Meydan Racecourse Preview and Tips

We’ve got the penultimate day of the 2010 Dubai Carnival creeping up on us and most eyes are firmly fixed on the 2010 Dubai World Cup- the richest race on the planet.

We’ll be bringing you full coverage of all the major races as we get closer to the big day, but we’ll be examining ante-post prices for the Dubai World Cup today and, let me assure you, there are some very solid prices on offer.

The big question for the race is whether this goes to a Meydan debutante who is shipping in specifically for this massive payday, or whether it’s going to go to a seasoned runner with more experience navigating the Tapeta surface.

Considering the fact that the four leading contenders, at least according to the odds, are first-time shippers from Japan and Great Britain leads me back a contender who has run against first-rate horses at Meydan and won convincingly.

I think the big variable is that you can’t go by last year’s Dubai form anymore as it’s a course and surface contradiction at this point.

Twice Over (Observatory), who is the leading favourite for this year’s World Cup race, didn’t race in Dubai last year, and comes off a fairly successful season in England and a 3rd place finish to Zenyatta (Street Cry) in the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic.

He has plenty of skill and speed, and he’s demonstrated synthetic surface form, but he hasn’t even had a proper prep race yet… this is literally his season debut, and I think it’s just too ambitious, especially at a slim 5/1 price. He’s a great horse, sure he could go on to win it, but there is just way too much working against him at this point.

Vision D’Etat (Chichicastenago) is a multi-million pound winner who certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to win the 2010 Dubai World Cup, but I’m forced to place him into the same pot as Twice Over as he is also using this as a seasonal debut.

He’s proved his cosmopolitan status by a successful trip to Sha Tin to take the Grade 1 Hong Kong Cup against a field of classy locals. He was annihilated by Sea the Stars (Cape Cross) in the Arc De Triomphe and I think he will need just the right trip to pull this one off. It’s a big ask to win this one against horses with course and distance form, so I just consider his odds to be a bit too short at 11/2.

Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) is America’s top contender here and the classy turf specialist ran 2nd to the legendary Zenyatta at the Breeders. He had a real blip on his seasonal debut at Tampa Bay Downs by getting pipped by Karelian (Bertrando) when he was sent off as the 2/5 favourite. I actually think he’s better poised for a score here than the other top two as, again, he’s actually had a race in the past few months.

The Tampa Bay Breeders Cup is small potatoes to the Dubai World Cup and I think his connections probably won’t mind throwing it away because they got an accurate portrait of what their horse was like at the time. He needed the work and I’m confident that he’ll be put through the paces to bring him back to prime form ahead of this Thursday’s race. I expect Gio Ponti to be razor sharp for this one and he trades at 6/1.

My early tip for the race is the talented Japanese runner Red Desire (Manhattan Café) who is priced at around 10/1 with the major bookmakers. He’s a lightly-raced 4 year-old trained by Mikio Matsunaga and he opened his Meydan account with a real bang by taking the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 against some supremely-talented runners including Gloria De Campeao (Impression), Allybar (King’s Best), Cavalryman (Halling), and Vodka (Tanino Gimlet).

That was a great intro to the Dubai season and he certainly earned his slot in this race. He’s an up-and-coming progressive sort facing off against some seasoned veterans and it’s important to remember that Gloria De Campeao ran second to last year’s winner Well Armed. I think Red Desire’s late-running style gives him a great edge in this one and he’s my early choice at a 10/1 price.

We’ll be bringing you another update on the 2010 Dubai World Cup tomorrow where we’ll discuss some of our place betting opportunities as well as detailing some of the longer odds contenders like Take the Points and Gloria De Campeao.