Breeders' Cup Day One Barn Notes From Santa Anita

BC Juvenile Sprint

Merit Man considered the betting choice. A PVAL mount. undefeated. Local quality. Will be an interesting test of whether local class proves to be the kingmaker here. Horses for courses or what? Sweet Shirley May will be an interesting option and she is unlaced for two months and switches over to Joel Rosario after just missing out last time with Desormeaux up. Wesley Ward does well with shippers and the cut back in distance might suit. 2YO races are a little tough this year with the Lasix variable. 

BC Marathon

Tricky race to bet and this one has some interesting horses in it. Atigun is the favourite which sorta says it all here. Kenny McPeek knows what he's doing with this guy and he's been punching it out at the highest level - something many of these contenders haven't been doing. He did finish 4th in the Travers but it was just a length and a bit. He showed on Belmont day that he can handle the distance. Fame and Glory has been pushed out a bit by many observers. Not a dirt horse but may improve with lasix added to the program. Mysterious argentinian shipper Calidoscopio could be the real variable here. Loves the long distances. I'm gonna try to cash a few bucks in this one with Commander and Mario Gutierrez teaming up for Vancouver-based connections. He's been a front-running terror at Hastings the year and Troy Taylor is in great form. Note that solid recent work. 

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Juvenile Fillies Turf

I'm going hard on Watsdachances in this race - she's my nap of the entire weekend. She's got a really nice running style that should suit this track and connections appear to be very confident about her ability to improve getting on firm turf for the first time. Look for her to maybe race a little closer to the pace. Word around the campfire is that she outworked established older horses during her recent works and appears to be training lights out. Undefeated Spring Venture ships down from Woodbine and will be competitive. Sky Lantern will likely go off as the favourite and she's a G1 winner in England. The question is - can she take the heat? 

Juvenile Fillies

Looks like a bit of a gunfight between Beholder and Executive privilege. It's a proper GOGO - Bejerano face-off here and also a Mandella vs Baffert. Lots of fun angles at play here. Don't expect prices on either of them Both will want the lead and that's going to likely give the edge to executiveprivelege if she can break well and get that lead. There is literally no margin for error since Gomez is drawn inside of another speed horse and is down on the rail. You'd also have to say that executiveprivelege has a bit more substance and has won by coming late as well. Spring in the Air is likely better than the 15/1 morning line would suggest but just hasn't won off synthetic. Maybe a high-priced parlay with Dullahan to both notch victories off synthetic? Undefeated dreaming of Julia could be the real spoiler and will enjoy the distance here too. Almost An Angel sounds like every girl I've ever dated but finished sixth in the Alcibiades which always seems to be a key race for the Breeders' Cup. Look at Broken Spell coming out of the Lucas barn - she finished second in the Alcibiades to Spring In The Air. Rajiv Maragh has done alright with this filly and she's been bumped pretty hard her last two races so that might be an excuse. She'll be lighting up the board if she comes in and could certainly be a factor. there's been a lot of speed in most of her races and if she gets the right amount of pace to aim at - she could be dangerous.