Kauto Star to Land Record King George VI?

A number of withdrawals, namely defending Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, have prompted an across-the-board price cut by bookmakers on living legend Kauto Star who seeks his fifth King George on the bounce.

Now priced at below even money with nearly every major bookmaker, the Paul Nicholls’ charge looks to be him vs the fences as a number of punters are seemingly convinced that he will run away with this one yet again- though he likely won’t top his incredible performance last year when he captured the race by 36 lengths.

It really looks set to boil down to a forecast market or a place-only market if the 10 year-old bay is as raring to go for this one as his connections are making him out to be. Of course there is going to be an entire school of punters who wouldn’t touch his 10/11 with a ten furlong pole. To each their own, but Kauto looks the real deal for this one.

There are only a handful of contenders here who have an actual chance to beat Kauto, though it will likely require a substantial error or two from the well-fancied gelding. Long Run remains the only other selection priced within single digits and he does boast a solid record at Kempton, having taken the Feltham Novices’ Chase last year on the King George undercard. A quick examination of the ones he lined up against in that one definitely undermines his claims to beat Europe’s best jumper. Beating out 9/2 Tazbar and 15/2 Ogee just won’t do if you’re still in single digits. Losses to Weapon’s Amnesty and the talented Little Josh further detract from Long Run’s claims.

Fan-favourite Forpadydeplasterer will undoubtedly take some money from the Irish contingent and he’s a quality selection, though a bit out of his depth against Gold Cup winners.

A genuine possibility to spring the upset could be the well-priced Sizing Europe, who finished second to Kauto at Down Royal back in early November. This will be his first kick at the Kempton can and that’s a plausible reason for his lukewarm 14/1 price. He does remain a strong place-only selection.

Planet of Sound is still in the running at the time of this writing and deserves respect for having beaten Denman, Tranquil Sea and War of Attrition in the Punchestown Gold Cup going 3m1f. If he runs to his potential and Kauto runs a stinker then you’d say he’s got a chance, but it will simply take so much for him to get home first.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s What a Friend will see plenty of each-way action and will likely halve in price once the final declarations are made. The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding opened the season a disappointing fifth to Imperial in the Betfair Chase but he really has gone from strength-to-strength in the past calendar year and finishing second to Denman in November of 2009 is as strong a reference as you could ask for in this case- Kauto has also finished second to Denman.