Two Year-Old European Thoroughbred Rankings Not Reflected in Antepost
- By A.J. Ryder on January 13, 2011 22:24 GMT
It is an admittedly odd situation that Dream Ahead (Diktat) and Frankel (Galileo) are both sitting on 126 ratings despite Frankel giving Dream an absolute hiding when they went off in the Dewhurst. It wasn’t even close on the day and a pair of Group 1’s against very forgettable fields does not a Guineas favourite make.
One wonders how a 126 can be shared between a 2000 Guineas contender sitting at 5/4 while the other can be backed at 16/1. Granted, Frankel is under-priced at 5/4 but he’s got the impressive victories in key prep races to at least semi-justify the price. Dream’s connections look to have pointed him on a much simpler two year-old campaign and the only 2000 Guineas contender he has actually bested was Strong Suit (Rahy).
Wootton Bassett (Iffraaj) remains the real one to watch for punters seeking further long-term value as the 12/1 antepost price for the Guineas remains very competitive. He is undefeated in five and boasts a Group 1 score in the Grand Criterium at Longchamp. His ability to score on different types of going adds credibility with victories over surfaces rated good, good to soft and very soft. Having tackled large fields of 18 and 21 is another important reference. It’s clear, judging from a review of his two year-old campaign, that connections have not seen the bottom of him yet and he won going away when challenged on the run-in for his Group 1 score. He shares a 120 rating with Irish runner Pathfork (Distorted Humor) who, admittedly, faced lower-profile opposition when securing a pair of graded scores.
Roderic O’Connor (Galileo) comes in at a 119 rating and the AP O’Brien-trained bay deserves credit for not shying away from top contenders. He ran second to Frankel in the Dewhurst and then went on to bounce back a mere two weeks later to tackle the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He trades at 10/1 for the Derby and 2000 Guineas and he definitely remains in the mix going into his three year-old campaign.
